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Prem Projections

Leon Bailey to Al Diriyah

Leon Bailey · Outgoing transfer · Al Diriyah

The Verdict Right Now

30%likelihood
Contact made / enquirydeal stage
Outgoingdirection
State of play
MoveVilla → Al Diriyah
In shortThree clubs eye exit
Last reportedAugust 30th (yesterday)
SourcingGold-standard reporting — an official statement or a top-tier reporter

Emery said ahead of Arsenal that Villa still expect Bailey to leave before the window shuts — “We were expecting him to leave... this is our objective” — with Mbaye's arrival adding pressure. Romano (August 29th) named Al Diriyah, Hull City and Sevilla as clubs asking Villa for conditions; Tavolieri added Sevilla and Villa have opened talks over a loan formula extending Bailey's contract a year before loaning him straight back out, with Al Diriyah's interest echoing a previously failed move to Saudi side Neom SC. Villa have reportedly dropped their asking price to €9m-10m (The 4th Official, August 29th) for a fee rather than losing him free next summer. Hull's need looks reduced after signing wingers Mohamed-Ali Cho (£11m, Nice) and Jean-Matteo Bahoya (Eintracht Frankfurt). Bailey has a year left on his contract; wages of ~£120,000 a week remain the obstacle throughout.

Primary source: Fabrizio Romano (X); Sacha Tavolieri, via My Old Man Said; The 4th Official/Yardbarker · last corroborated August 30th.

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How the Story Moved

DateWhat changed
August 29thTrackedRumor opened on the board at 30% (contact) — source: Fabrizio Romano (X). Fabrizio Romano reported at 8:32am UK time on August 29th that Bailey is expected to leave Villa before the window shuts, with negotiations ongoing after several clubs -- including Al Diriyah, Hull City, and Sevilla -- asked Villa for conditions to sign the winger. It follows Unai Emery saying on August 28th that a second attempted Hull move had fallen through, with the club still hoping to find Bailey an exit before Tuesday's deadline. Bailey has a year left on his contract, wages of around £120,000 a week have been the obstacle throughout the summer, and Villa want a fee rather than a loan.

Timeline reflects our tracking history since the rumor joined the board, not every media mention. For everything Villa, live: the Verdict homepage.