Leon Bailey to Hull City
Leon Bailey · Outgoing transfer · Hull City
Verdict Delivered
This rumor DIED. It was dropped from the board after going quiet, last rated 2%.
State of play
| Move | Villa → Hull City |
| Outcome | Never happened |
| Rated at the end | 2% |
| Resolved | September 2nd |
Hull's interest fell apart after personal terms could not be agreed with Bailey. Their need for a wide forward has also eased since signing wingers Mohamed-Ali Cho (£11m, Nice) and Jean-Matteo Bahoya (Eintracht Frankfurt). Wages of around £120,000 a week were the obstacle throughout; Bailey's exit route now runs through Sevilla or Saudi Arabia instead (see other rows).
Related
How the Story Moved
| Date | What changed | |
|---|---|---|
| July 19th | Tracked | Rumor opened on the board at 43% (talks) — source: The Athletic, via OneFootball; Sports Mole. The Athletic reported on July 19th that newly promoted Hull City have held talks with Villa and with Bailey's representatives in recent days over a permanent move for the Jamaica international. Bailey, 28, is not part of Unai Emery's plans and Villa would prefer a permanent sale rather than a loan. Trabzonspor and Celta Vigo have also registered interest, but the winger is understood to favour staying in England. Reported figures put the fee in the region of £12m with roughly £3m in add-ons, though that structure comes from a lower-tier exclusive rather than the Athletic's account, which frames the discussions as talks rather than an agreement. Bailey joined from Bayer Leverkusen in 2021 and has made 163 appearances for Villa, scoring 23 goals with 25 assists. His exit would leave Villa without their only senior natural right winger, sharpening the need for the wide addition Emery has been chasing all window. |
| July 30th | Moved | Likelihood rose from 43% to 71% (agreed). Hull City owner Acun Ilicali confirmed on July 30th that Bailey is due to complete his move from Villa shortly, with the 28-year-old expected to sign a long-term contract at the newly promoted club on a permanent basis rather than the loan Hull had earlier pushed for. The winger was made available this summer after a difficult loan spell at Roma that ended in an early recall, and he was then left out of the squad that flew to the Far East for the pre-season tour. Bailey started only three Premier League matches last season and scored once in 19 appearances in all competitions, the goal coming in the Europa League win over Lille at Villa Park. Signed from Bayer Leverkusen for around GBP 30m in 2021, he produced his best football in 2023-24, when 10 goals and nine assists helped Villa finish fourth and reach the Champions League, but injuries have limited him badly across the two seasons since. Neither club had announced the transfer as of July 30th, and the fee and structure have not been made public. |
| August 3rd | Moved | Likelihood fell from 71% to 7% (cooling). BirminghamLive reported at 9.26am BST that Hull City are considering pulling out of their move for Bailey altogether: the winger has been their target for the past fortnight, but no agreement has been reached with Villa and the transfer has not progressed since Acun Ilicali's July 30th claim that it was days from completion. BirminghamLive states plainly that a deal is yet to be agreed upon, which is what removes the basis for the agreed stage this row previously carried; whether Hull can revive it is described as unclear. Read Aston Villa's James Chettle relayed the same reporting at 9.47am BST and framed it as a setback for Villa, who want a permanent sale this summer to create room and help fund a replacement. The player's own position has not changed - he remains open to leaving, and he was held back from the Far East tour specifically so his future could be resolved. Bailey has one year left on his contract, so this window is Villa's last chance to bank a fee for him. Villa must now either revive the Hull negotiation or find another buyer before the window closes on September 1st. Hull City owner Acun Ilicali confirmed on July 30th that Bailey is due to complete his move from Villa shortly, with the 28-year-old expected to sign a long-term contract at the newly promoted club on a permanent basis rather than the loan Hull had earlier pushed for. The winger was made available this summer after a difficult loan spell at Roma that ended in an early recall, and he was then left out of the squad that flew to the Far East for the pre-season tour. Bailey started only three Premier League matches last season and scored once in 19 appearances in all competitions, the goal coming in the Europa League win over Lille at Villa Park. Signed from Bayer Leverkusen for around GBP 30m in 2021, he produced his best football in 2023-24, when 10 goals and nine assists helped Villa finish fourth and reach the Champions League, but injuries have limited him badly across the two seasons since. Neither club had announced the transfer as of July 30th, and the fee and structure have not been made public. |
| August 5th | Moved | Likelihood rose from 7% to 43% (talks). The move is reported to be back on after stalling at the weekend. Hull City's owner and chairman Acun Ilicali published an updated transfer list on his own X account at 11pm BST on August 4th, naming Jack Butland, Oscar Zambrano, Matt Targett, and Hidemasa Morita and then listing six further targets by nationality flag alone, each carrying a green tick. The tenth and last of them is Jamaican, and Bailey is the Jamaica international Hull have spent the summer pursuing. In the post immediately before it Ilicali wrote that some of the ticked deals are fully agreed and in the paperwork process, which stops short of saying that this one is. BirminghamLive read the post on the morning of August 5th as a signal that the transfer is imminent, writing that interest had appeared to cool after the deal stalled over the weekend and that there is now room for optimism for all parties. No fee, no personal terms, and no agreement have been reported by anyone, and Bailey is not named anywhere in the post. John Townley told the Claret & Blue podcast that Bailey has been open to the move for a fortnight and stayed in England rather than joining the Far East tour partly for family reasons, and that a newly promoted Premier League club is likely to have more financial flexibility than the overseas clubs he would realistically consider. Bailey has one year left on his contract and is not expected to be offered a new one; a fee plus the wage saving is the outcome Villa want. His reported wages of around GBP 120,000 a week have been the obstacle throughout. |
| August 5th | Moved | Likelihood rose from 43% to 82% (medical). Hull Live's Hull City correspondent Barry Cooper reported at 9.41am BST that the move is back on and could be firmed up within a day, and that Bailey is now expected to undergo a medical with Hull this afternoon as both clubs work to complete the transfer before the weekend. Cooper's account is that talks over the previous twenty-four hours involving Bailey and the Hull owner Acun Ilicali pushed the deal through, resolving the difficulties that had brought the Tigers close to pulling out at the weekend; Sergej Jakirovic had told Hull Live in Istanbul that he did not know whether it would be finalised. Bailey is understood to have pushed for the move himself, and Hull expect it done before their trip to Frankfurt this weekend. The Yorkshire Post's Tom Coates relayed the medical line at 12.00pm BST. Separately, Lewis Cox wrote in the Express & Star at 11.26am BST that Bailey is closing in on the switch, that Hull are finally advancing, and that the deal looks set to be finalised by the weekend. Two cautions belong on the record: Hull Live's wording is that the medical is expected rather than confirmed, and no fee, personal terms, or agreement have been published by anyone. Neither club has announced anything. The move is reported to be back on after stalling at the weekend. Hull City's owner and chairman Acun Ilicali published an updated transfer list on his own X account at 11pm BST on August 4th, naming Jack Butland, Oscar Zambrano, Matt Targett, and Hidemasa Morita and then listing six further targets by nationality flag alone, each carrying a green tick. The tenth and last of them is Jamaican, and Bailey is the Jamaica international Hull have spent the summer pursuing. In the post immediately before it Ilicali wrote that some of the ticked deals are fully agreed and in the paperwork process, which stops short of saying that this one is. BirminghamLive read the post on the morning of August 5th as a signal that the transfer is imminent, writing that interest had appeared to cool after the deal stalled over the weekend and that there is now room for optimism for all parties. No fee, no personal terms, and no agreement have been reported by anyone, and Bailey is not named anywhere in the post. John Townley told the Claret & Blue podcast that Bailey has been open to the move for a fortnight and stayed in England rather than joining the Far East tour partly for family reasons, and that a newly promoted Premier League club is likely to have more financial flexibility than the overseas clubs he would realistically consider. Bailey has one year left on his contract and is not expected to be offered a new one; a fee plus the wage saving is the outcome Villa want. His reported wages of around GBP 120,000 a week have been the obstacle throughout. |
| August 12th | Moved | Likelihood fell from 82% to 2% (off). Sergej Jakirović ended a month of stop-start negotiations on August 12th, telling BBC Humberside that Hull City's move for Bailey is off. The Hull manager called the situation a mess, said he would rather look elsewhere than have to persuade a reluctant signing, and pointed out the deal had already collapsed once before being revived. It is the clearest statement either club has made about the transfer; neither has announced anything at any stage. The move had reached a medical, lined up for the afternoon of August 5th after talks involving Bailey and the Hull owner Acun Ilicali, and Matt Maher wrote in the Express & Star on August 9th that completion was expected this week. Bailey's summer has been shaped by the transfer rather than by fitness: he was withdrawn after 23 minutes at the Estádio do Dragão on July 25th with muscle tightness, held back from the Far East tour, and left out of the 23 players Villa registered with UEFA for the Super Cup on August 6th. He has a year left on a contract Villa are not expected to renew, wages of around GBP 120,000 a week have been the obstacle throughout, and Villa want a fee rather than a loan. |
| August 14th | Moved | Likelihood rose from 2% to 43% (talks). The agent says it is not over. Craig Butler, Leon Bailey's representative, told the Jamaica Observer on Wednesday that the winger's camp are in the middle of negotiations with several clubs and are weighing their options, and that Hull City are “a very good club and are very interested, but we have details that have to be worked out”. The Observer published those words on August 13th in the same article that carried Sergej Jakirovic's declaration that the move was off — the Hull manager telling BBC Radio Humberside he would not beg a reluctant signing, then conceding in the same breath that it had been off three weeks earlier and come back on. BirminghamLive relayed Butler's comments on the morning of August 14th. The two accounts do not agree on tone, but they agree on substance: nothing has been signed and nothing has been formally withdrawn. Hull's owner Acun Ilıcalı had earlier put the deal at around 70 per cent complete, and it reached a medical lined up for the afternoon of August 5th after talks involving Bailey and Ilıcalı before stalling again. Bailey has a year left on a contract Villa are not expected to renew, wages of around GBP 120,000 a week have been the obstacle throughout, and Villa want a fee rather than a loan. He was withdrawn after 23 minutes at the Estádio do Dragão on July 25th with muscle tightness, held back from the Far East tour, and left out of the 23 players Villa registered with UEFA for the Super Cup on August 6th. |
| August 19th | Moved | Likelihood fell from 43% to 7% (cooling). The agent says it is not over. Craig Butler, Leon Bailey's representative, told the Jamaica Observer on Wednesday that the winger's camp are in the middle of negotiations with several clubs and are weighing their options, and that Hull City are “a very good club and are very interested, but we have details that have to be worked out”. The Observer published those words on August 13th in the same article that carried Sergej Jakirovic's declaration that the move was off — the Hull manager telling BBC Radio Humberside he would not beg a reluctant signing, then conceding in the same breath that it had been off three weeks earlier and come back on. BirminghamLive relayed Butler's comments on the morning of August 14th. The two accounts do not agree on tone, but they agree on substance: nothing has been signed and nothing has been formally withdrawn. Hull's owner Acun Ilıcalı had earlier put the deal at around 70 per cent complete, and it reached a medical lined up for the afternoon of August 5th after talks involving Bailey and Ilıcalı before stalling again. Bailey has a year left on a contract Villa are not expected to renew, wages of around GBP 120,000 a week have been the obstacle throughout, and Villa want a fee rather than a loan. He was withdrawn after 23 minutes at the Estádio do Dragão on July 25th with muscle tightness, held back from the Far East tour, and left out of the 23 players Villa registered with UEFA for the Super Cup on August 6th. Craig Butler sharpened the picture again on August 16th, telling the same outlet that Bailey's camp are in the middle of negotiations with several clubs and weighing their options, with Hull described as a serious option and Villa's asking price put at GBP 12m to GBP 20m. No other club is named, and Hull remain the only side with a deal actually reported. Hull's interest has cooled. Sky Sports News's Anthony Joseph and Tim Thornton reported on the club's live blog at 8:37am UK time on August 19th that Hull City were close to signing Bailey earlier in the window, but talks between the two clubs have stalled, and Hull are now assessing other options, with strong interest in Fiorentina's Niccolo Fortini. Ajax have separately held talks over a possible move, tracked as a new rumor below. |
| August 28th | Moved | Likelihood fell from 7% to 2% (off). Bailey's move to Hull City has fallen through for a second time, Unai Emery indicated on August 28th, after it had appeared revived: "We were expecting him to leave," Emery said. "When we left for Asia, he was close to leaving, but he is still with us now. Hopefully he can get a good opportunity to leave and join another club and continue his career, and this is our objective" (BirminghamLive, corroborated by Jacob Tanswell of The Athletic on X). The £120,000-a-week wages that stalled every earlier conversation remain the same obstacle facing any move before Tuesday's deadline. Hull owner Acun Ilıcalı had earlier put an agreement at 70 per cent complete with a medical lined up for August 5th, before talks stalled per Sky Sports News on August 19th. |
| August 29th | Moved | Likelihood rose from 2% to 30% (contact). Fabrizio Romano reported at 8:32am UK time on August 29th that Bailey is expected to leave Villa before the window shuts, with negotiations ongoing after several clubs -- including Al Diriyah, Hull City, and Sevilla -- asked Villa for conditions to sign the winger. It follows Unai Emery saying on August 28th that a second attempted Hull move had fallen through, with the club still hoping to find Bailey an exit before Tuesday's deadline. Bailey has a year left on his contract, wages of around £120,000 a week have been the obstacle throughout the summer, and Villa want a fee rather than a loan. |
| September 1st | Moved | Likelihood fell from 30% to 2% (off). Hull's interest fell apart after personal terms could not be agreed with Bailey. Their need for a wide forward has also eased since signing wingers Mohamed-Ali Cho (£11m, Nice) and Jean-Matteo Bahoya (Eintracht Frankfurt). Wages of around £120,000 a week were the obstacle throughout; Bailey's exit route now runs through Sevilla or Saudi Arabia instead (see other rows). |
| September 2nd | Verdict | Rumor died — dropped from the board at 2% |
Timeline since the rumor joined the board.